UP EXPERT OPINION: ‘Tunisia’s recent election heralds a crisis of democracy’ – UP human rights experts

Posted on October 24, 2024

Tunisia’s recent presidential election on 6 October 2024 saw President Kais Saied winning a second term with more than 90% of the vote. His victory has been criticised by rights groups, which argue that Tunisia is undergoing a serious erosion of democracy, and a shrinking of rights and freedoms.

Analysts have described the election as one ‘without real choice’. Only two candidates out of more than a dozen other hopefuls were allowed to stand against President Saied; strong political opponents have been persecuted and jailed; and only 29% of more than nine million registered voters participated. The low voter turnout has been seen as a protest by citizens who felt there was an absence of conditions for a free and fair election. As such, the African Union Election Observation Mission (AUEOM) deployed a short-term mission to Tunisia, and issued a statement. However, the statement omits key issues that affect the credibility of the election, and has been perceived to be legitimising President Saied’s authoritarian rule.

Organisations such as the Freedom House ranks Tunisia among the African countries that have experienced the most precipitous decline in democratic governance since 2019. In 2021, President Saied dissolved the parliament, seized most powers, and rewrote the Constitution, actions that the opposition described as a coup. A referendum on the Constitution passed with a turnout of only 30%, while a January 2023 run-off for the new, nearly powerless, parliament that President Saied had created with that Constitution had a turnout of only 11%.

In the build-up to the election, human rights groups have reported human rights violations such as torture; the arbitrary arrest of journalists, critics, and opponents; and a lack of judicial independence. Restrictions on freedom of expression, media freedom, internet freedom and freedom of association have also been prevalent. In addition, restrictions on the political participation of black Tunisians and sub-Saharan Africans as well as violence against them have been recurring concerns.

As election day drew closer, the world witnessed rising tensions and the disqualification of President Saied’s strong political rivals – a move seen by many as paving the way for his second term. The disqualification and jailing of strong political opponents have prompted protests by opposition and civil society groups. New York-based Human Rights Watch has claimed that more than “170 people are detained in Tunisia on political grounds or for exercising their fundamental rights”. Subsequently, lawmakers loyal to President Saied approved a law that stripped the administrative court of authority over election disputes. This court is widely seen as the country's last independent judicial body. This move closed all avenues of access to justice during the election.  

The electoral commission, the judiciary and other state institutions have been seen to serve President Saied’s interests. Respect for human rights and economic issues have been central themes of this election, though the absence of conditions of a free and fair election has led to voter apathy, the worst in the history of Arab nations. As he embarks on his second term, President Saied’s legacy is seen as that of amassing absolute power and undermining democracy in the country. The prospects of strengthening democracy and future elections remain bleak.

The AUEOM was on the ground a few days before the election took place to observe and document key issues affecting the process, including human rights issues. However, the credibility of its findings has been called into question, due to its failure to capture and document the real issues at stake in the election. There are doubts about whether the organisation played its part in protecting the democratic rights of Tunisian citizens and reinforcing good governance principles at such a critical time in the history of the country. It is worth noting that in its recommendations, the AUEOM stated that compliance with the national legal framework requires some improvement, implying that noncompliance with the rule of law hurt the outcome of the election. The responsibility to ensure compliance lies with President Saied, who is seen as butchering the law. The complete disregard for the rule of law by his government and the alteration of the law to serve their agenda pose a significant threat to the future of democracy in Tunisia, making conditions rife for authoritarian rule.

Women accounted for 50.4% of the registered voter population, and made up 75% of election officials and 74% of citizen observers. Despite this, there was a lack of female representation among candidates. This demonstrates that restrictions on political participation have created a hostile environment that thwarts the possibility of women participating as candidates in the election. Additionally, the visibility of women in candidate representation or as security representatives is pegged at a low 44%. Youth representation was even lower, with registered voters within the population accounting for 32.6%. Arguably, low voter registration among young people could be attributed to restrictions to freedom of expression and the lack of good democratic practices in the electoral process.

It's uncertain what President Saied’s second term will look like for Tunisian citizens. The fear is that it could be the beginning of a ‘reign of terror’, with the situation potentially worsening and even more human rights being violated, especially as they pertain to the vulnerable and marginalised. The African Union and the Arab Maghreb Union are responsible for promoting and preserving democracy in the North African country, and have a mammoth task ahead of them, given the recently witnessed setbacks and decline in democratic gains made since the Arab Spring in Tunisia.

By Tendai Mbanje, a project officer in the Expression, Information and Digital Rights Unit, Centre for Human Rights, University of Pretoria

Sithandazile Moyo, UP Alumnus, independent consultant, democracy, and election expert

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the University of Pretoria.

- Author Tendai Mbanje and Sithandazile Moyo

Copyright © University of Pretoria 2024. All rights reserved.

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