As SA and Nigeria prepare for a presidential binational commission meeting expected to take place in SA next month, it is worth pondering the state of what should be Africa’s most strategic bilateral relationship, which continues to be characterised by competition and co-operation, as well as much mutual mistrust.

The two countries represent an eagle and a springbok. The eagle has a reputation of being able to soar high above stormy clouds, symbolising the resilience of Nigerians. Springboks are graceful gazelles that can subsist for long periods without water, characterising the similar toughness of South Africans.

At the Brics summit in Johannesburg, diplomatic eyebrows were raised at Ethiopia and Egypt (along with Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) being invited to join the group, while a lackadaisical Nigeria – Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation – appears to have been overlooked.

In 2022 trade between Nigeria and SA was worth R18.6bn, down from a pre-COVID figure of R59bn. In a blow to bilateral ties, in 2021 Shoprite sold its supermarket chain in Nigeria to local buyers, while the Southern Sun hotel group announced a similar winding down of its interests in the country a year later.

Like MTN, which was fined $1.7bn in 2016 for failing to disconnect illicit SIM cards, Shoprite, Southern Sun and MultiChoice have all complained about Nigeria’s erratic regulatory environment, with Shoprite also struggling to clear its goods at Nigeria’s ports. SA companies feel they are being targeted by Nigerian regulators: a worrying sign if Abuja is to attract much-needed foreign investment.

President Cyril Ramaphosa attended the 10th session of the binational commission in Abuja in 2021, which involved working groups on politics and consular issues; trade, industry and investments; minerals and energy; security and defence; and the social sector.

However, further poisoning bilateral ties, Nigerian shops and properties in Johannesburg were destroyed in the same year in a repeat of earlier xenophobic attacks. Complicating this situation has been the Nigerian-on-Nigerian violence carried out in SA by cultist groups such as Black Axe and The Vikings, which resulted in the deaths of more than 30 Nigerians between October 2021 and January 2022.

The Nigeria-SA consular and migration forum met in Pretoria in February 2022 to follow up on the binational commission, but no early warning system had been established in the three years since earlier attacks on Nigerians in SA. Bilateral accords have tended to rely disproportionately on implementation by the two governments, without sufficient private sector and civil society participation.

A particular source of friction for Nigerians has been persistent visa delays. The overstretched SA consulate in Lagos, which typically processes a monthly average of 1 000 applications, spends much of its time on visas as it deems the vast majority of applicants to be fraudulent. These capacity constraints have inevitably resulted in lengthy delays and frustration among Nigerians.

Despite efforts to “reset” this relationship, both countries resemble crippled giants, suffering from high unemployment and indebtedness, sluggish growth, widespread youth joblessness and low investment. SA continues to experience chronic crime and load-shedding, while Nigeria – with its dilapidated infrastructure – has been unable to stem instability across the country.

Both African powers, which account for more than 60% of their subregional economies, require genuine vision to promote effective regional integration. Despite euphoric talk of a renewed “strategic partnership”, this relationship still has a long way to go before Abuja and Tshwane can act as engines of growth to power Africa’s sputtering locomotive.

The Nigerian eagle must soar while the SA springbok gallops in sync if Africa is to be reborn.

Professor Adekeye Adebajo is professor and senior research fellow at the University of Pretoria’s Centre for the Advancement of Scholarship.

This article first appeared in Business Day on 9 October 2023.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the University of Pretoria.