The BFAP baseline 2011 presents an outlook of Southern African agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2011 to 2020. This outlook is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors. The outlook is generated by the BFAP sector model, which is an econometric, recursive, partial equilibrium model. From a strategic planning point of view, the Outlook of agricultural markets that is presented by this Baseline can be considered as “cautious” or “conservative”. It presents only one plausible outcome of future events where the world economy recovers very slowly and as a result energy prices remain fairly stagnant within a band with some level of volatility from time-to time. Risk and probability analysis in terms of the price levels presented in the baseline indicate that the probability of prices increasing relative to that presented in the baseline is significantly higher than for prices to be lower.
The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) (www.bfap.co.za) is a virtual network linking individuals with multi-disciplinary backgrounds to create a coordinated research system that informs decision making within the Agricultural Food and Beverage System of South and Southern Africa. The core analytical team consists of independent analysts and researchers who are affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development at the University of Pretoria, the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Stellenbosch, and the Directorate of Agricultural Economics at the Provincial Department of Agriculture, Western Cape.