There has been some speculation that COVID-19 follows a seasonal pattern or that the virus does not survive as well in warmer temperatures. Some evidence suggests that the virus survives better at colder temperatures, similar to other viruses such as SARS. In terms of seasonality, the virus is still too new to have any firm data on how cases will change with the seasons. 

A team of leading South African environmental scientists, from a range of institutions, has been formed under the auspices of the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) to consider the environmental aspects (including weather, climate and air pollution) of the epidemic in this country and the region. This is just one aspect of DSI’s coordinated effort to mobilise South African scientific resources to help mitigate this national crisis. The team is advising the epidemiological modelling group of the National Department of Health on this issue. The UP contribution is the seasonal forecasting of minimum and maximum temperatures for 19 locations across South Africa.

As part of the departmental's effort to contribute toward the COVID-19 crisis, Prof Willem Landman and his team have been modelling seasonal expected minimum and maximum temperatures for 19 locations in South Africa (please see the attached documents). The forecasts are for three equi-probable categories of above-normal, near-normal and below-normal. The numbers next to the colour bars show forecast skill as determined over 38 years of hindcasts (or re-forecasts). There is a skill value next to each category, and when that value is higher than 500 it means that over the test (verification) period, the model was able to discriminate that category from the other two. The four numbers below the colour bars represent (from top to bottom) the 25th, 33.3rd, 66.7th and 75th percentile values in degrees Celsius of the observed data over the same 38 years.

For more on the archive of seasonal forecasts of not only temperature but also rainfall, please have a look at Seasonal Forecast Worx. For more on COVID-19 please visit the COVID-19 Corona South African Resource Portal.