Willem A. Landman

email[email protected] 
Tel: +27 (0) 12 420 3713
Office: Geography Building 3-7

Seasonal climate forecasts

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Archive of forecasts

Invitation to farmers to participate in seasonal forecast initiative

Research profile

Professor Willem Adolf Landman is a full professor in Meteorology in the Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology (GGM) in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences. He has worked in meteorology for more than three decades and has been associated with the Department as an extraordinary professor since 2005. Before joining the Department in 2016, he first served as Chief Scientist at the South African Weather Service, and then as Chief Researcher at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). Since joining GGM, he has been the project leader or co-leader of the following: a National Research Foundation project (Global Change Grand Challenge) on knowledge application for the management of extreme climate events; an Alliance for Collaboration on Climate and Earth Systems Science (ACCESS) project investigating the predictability of seasonal anomalies for societal benefit; a Water Research Commission project on research-based assessment of integrated approaches to nature-based solutions, focusing on seasonal predictions system development for Vaal Dam management; an ACCESS-JST (Japan Science and Technology Agency) project on early warning systems for infectious diseases; and a Belmont Forum project addressing southern Africa’s hydro-economy and water security.

Since joining the Department, he has published more than 30 journal papers and has been recognised by the NRF for his invaluable contribution to the development of operational seasonal forecasting in South and southern Africa. His work has impacted on specific applications of seasonal forecasting, such as hydrology, agriculture and health in the region. In 2017, he established an operational seasonal forecasting entity at UP called Seasonal Forecast Worx, through which seasonal forecasts for southern Africa are distributed. These forecasts include rainfall and temperature forecasts for the region, malaria forecasts for the Limpopo Province, dry-land crop-yield and rainfall forecasts for a number of farms in South Africa and Namibia, inflow forecasts for Lake Kariba, and downstream forecasts for the Vaal Dam. Monthly forecasts of El Niño and La Niña events are also provided and are included in the ensemble of El Niño-Southern Oscillation forecasts administered by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, which is part of the Earth Institute of Columbia University in New York, USA. He is an adjunct research scientist at this institution.

Professor Landman holds a B2 rating from the NRF. Find out more about Professor Landman here.

 

Extramural activities

https://www.facebook.com/kayakprof

 

Awards

 

Qualifications

  • BSc (Meteorology), 1987, University of Pretoria
  • BSc (Honours) (Meteorology), 1991, cum laude, University of Pretoria
  • MSc (Meteorology), 1997, cum laude, University of Pretoria (Title of dissertation: A Study of the Rainfall Variability of South Africa as Revealed by Multivariate Analysis)
  • PhD (Science), 2000, University of the Witwatersrand (Title of thesis: A Multi-Tiered Seasonal Prediction Scheme for Summer Rainfall of Southern Africa)

 

Course notes

 

Teaching and research plans

2018-2022 Meteorology teaching and research plans

 

Selected presentations

 

Papers that describe my main research focus

  • Landman, W.A., Archer, E.R.M., Tadross, M.A (2020). Citizen science for the prediction of climate extremes in South Africa and Namibia. Frontiers in Climate, 2:5, doi: 10.3389/fclim.2020.00005.
  • Landman, W.A., Barnston, A.G., Vogel, C., Savy, J. (2019). Use of El Niño-Southern Oscillation related seasonal precipitation predictability in developing regions for potential societal benefit. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 5327-5337. doi: 10.1002/JOC.6157.
  • Landman, W.A., Sweijd, N., Masedi, N. Minakawa, N. (2020). The development and prudent application of climate-based forecasts of seasonal malaria in the Limpopo province in South Africa. Environmental Development, 35, 100522, doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2020.100522.
  • Landman, W.A., DeWitt, D. Lee, D.-E., Beraki, A., Lötter, D. (2012). Seasonal rainfall prediction skill over South Africa: 1- vs. 2-tiered forecasting systems. Weather and Forecasting, 27, 489-501. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00078.1.
  • Muchuru, S., Landman, W.A., DeWitt, D. (2016). Prediction of inflows into Lake Kariba using a combination of physical and empirical models. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 2570–2581, doi: 10.1002/joc.4513.

 

Research publications (2013-2022)

  • Archer, E.R.M.,  Du Toit, J., Engelbrecht, C., Hoffman, M.T., Landman, W.A., ,Malherbe, J., Stern, M. (2022). The 2015-19 multi year drought in the Eastern Cape, South Africa: it's evolution and impacts on agriculture. Journal of Arid Environments, 196, 104630
  • Barnes, M.A., Ndarana, T., Sprenger, M., Landman, W.A. (2021). Stratospheric intrusion depth and its effect on surface cyclogenesis: An idealized PV inversion experiment. Weather and Climate Dynamics. [preprint], doi: 10.5194/wcd-2021-24, in review.
  • Shirvani, A., Landman, W.A., Barlow, M. Hoell, A. (2021). Evaluation of the forecast skill of North American Multi-Model Ensemble for monthly precipitation forecasts over Iran. Climate Dynamics, under review.
  • Kapwata, T., Caradee, Y.W., du Preez, D.J., Kunene, Z., Mathee, A., Ikeda, T., Landman, W., Maharaj, R., Sweijd, N., Minakawa, N., Blesic, S. (2021). Exploring rural hospital admissions for diarrhoeal disease, malaria, pneumonia, and asthma in relation to temperature, rainfall and air pollution using wavelet transform analysis. Science of the Total Environment, 791, 148307. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148307
  • Archer, E.R.M.; Landman, W.A., Malherbe, J., Maluleke, P., Weepener, H. (2021). Managing climate risk in livestock production in southern Africa:  how might improved tailored forecasting contribute? Climate Risk Management, 32, 100312, doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100312.
  • Barnes, M.A., Ndarana, T., Landman, W.A. (2021). Cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and their extension to the surface. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-05662-7.
  • Barnes, M.A., Turner, K., Ndarana, T. and Landman, W.A. (2021). Cape Storm: A dynamical study of a cut-off low and its impact on South Africa. Atmospheric Research, 249, 105290, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105290.
  • Engelbrecht C.J., Phakula S., Landman W.A., Engelbrecht F.A.. (2021). Subseasonal deterministic prediction skill of low-level geopotential height affecting southern Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 36, 195-205, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0008.1.
  • Mason, S.J., Ferro, C.A.T., Landman, W.A. (2021). Forecasts of "normal". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (735), 1225-1236, doi: 10.1002/qj.3968.
  • Wright, C.Y., Kapwata, T., du Preez, D.J., Wernecke, B., Garland, R., Nkosi, V., Landman, W.A., Dyson, L. and Norval, M. (2021). Major climate change-induced risks to human health in South Africa. Environmental Research, 196, 110973. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110973
  • Landman, W.A., Archer, E.R.M, Tadross, M.A (2020). Citizen science for the prediction of climate extremes in South Africa and Namibia. Frontiers in Climate, 2:5, doi: 10.3389/fclim.2020.00005.
  • Landman, W.A., Sweijd, N., Masedi, N. Minakawa, N. (2020). The development and prudent application of climate-based forecasts of seasonal malaria in the Limpopo province in South Africa. Environmental Development, 35, 100522, doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2020.100522.
  • Phakula, S., Landman, W.A., Engelbrecht, C.J. and Makgoale, T. (2020). Forecast skill of minimum and maximum temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales over South Africa. Earth and Space Science, 7, e2019EA000697, 1-11. doi: 10.1029/2019EA000697.
  • Landman, W.A. (2019). Gary Lackmann's book Midlatitude Synoptic Meteorology: Dynamics, Analysis and Forecasting and Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology Lab Manual, by Gary M. Lackmann, Brian E. Mapes and Kevin R. Tyle. Clean Air Journal, 29(1), 13, doi: 10.17159/2410-972x/2019/v29n1a11
  • Wright, C.Y., Kapwata, T., Wernecke, B., Garland, R., Nkosi, V., Shezi, B., Landman, W.A. and Mathee, A. (2019). Gathering the evidence and identifying opportunities for future research in climate, heat and health in South Africa: The role of the South African Medical Research Council. South African Medical Journal, 109 (11b), 20 - 24. doi: 10.7196%2FSAMJ.2019.v109i11b.14253.
  • Archer, E., Landman W.A., Malherbe, J., Tadross, M. and Pretorius, S. (2019). South Africa’s winter rainfall region drought: a region in transition? Climate Risk Management. Volume 25, 2019, 100188. doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2019.100188.
  • Jacobs, Q., and Landman, W.A. (2019). Adding value to numerical weather predictions for the aviation industry in South Africa. International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace, 6(5). https://commons.erau.edu/ijaaa/vol6/iss5/11.
  • Landman, W.A., Barnston, A.G., Vogel, C. and Savy, J. (2019). Use of ENSO-related seasonal precipitation predictability in developing regions for potential societal benefit. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 5327–5337. doi: 10.1002/JOC.6157.
  • Maluleke, P. Landman, W.A., Malherbe, J. and Archer, E. (2019). Seasonal forecasts for the Limpopo Province in estimating deviations from grazing capacity. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3-4), 1693-1702, doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2696-x.
  • Shirvani, A., Fadaei, A.S. and Landman, W.A. (2019). The linkage between geopotential height and monthly precipitation in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(1), 221-236, doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2479-4.
  • Archer, E., Engelbrecht, F., Hänsler, A., Landman, W.A., Tadross, M. and Helmschrot, J. (2018). Seasonal prediction and regional climate projections for southern Africa. In: Revermann, R., Krewenka, K.M., Schmiedel, U., Olwoch, J.M., Helmschrot, J. and Jürgens, N. (eds.), Climate change and adaptive landmanagement in southern Africa – assessments, changes, challenges, and solutions, 14–21, Biodiversity & Ecology, 6, Klaus Hess Publishers, Göttingen & Windhoek.
  • Landman, W.A., Engelbrecht, F.A., Hewitson, B., Malherbe, J. and Van der Merwe, J. (2018). Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 132, 1153-1163, doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2168-8.
  • Phakula, S., Landman, W.A. and Beraki, A. (2018). Forecasting seasonal rainfall characteristics and onset months over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (Suppl. 1), e889-e900, doi: 10.1002/joc.5417.
  • Ratnam, J., Doi, T., Landman, W.A. and Behera, S. (2018). Seasonal forecasting of onset of summer rains over South Africa, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology57,2697-2711, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0067.1.
  • Archer, E., Landman, W.A., Tadross, M., Malherbe, J., Weepener, H., Maluleke, P. and Marumbwa, F. (2017). Understanding the evolution of the 2014-2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: key lessons. Climate Risk Management, 16, 22-28, doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.03.006.
  • Cobon, D.H., Baethgen, W.E, Landman. W., Williams. A., Archer van Garderen, E., Johnston, P., Malherbe, J., Maluleke, P., Kgakatsi, I.B., Davis, P. (2017). Agroclimatology in Grasslands. In: J. L. Hatfield, M. V.K. Sivakumar, J. H. Prueger, editors, Agroclimatology: Linking Agriculture to Climate, Agronomic Monograph. 60. ASA, CSSA, and SSSA, Madison, WI. doi: 10.2134/agronmonogr60.2016.0013.
  • Conway, D., Dalin, C., Landman, W.A. and Osborn, T.J. (2017). Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption. Nature Energy, 2, 946-953, doi: 10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4.
  • Engelbrecht, C.J., Landman, W.A., Graham, R.J. and McLean, P. (2017). Seasonal predictive skill of intraseasonal synoptic type variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa by making use of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast system 5.International Journal of Climatology,37,1998-2012, doi: 10.1002/joc.4830.
  • Horowitz, H.M., Garland, R.M., Thatcher, M., Landman, W.A., Dedekind, Z., Van der Merwe, J. and Engelbrecht, F.A. (2017). Understanding the seasonality and climatology of aerosols in Africa through evaluation of CCAM aerosol simulations against AERONET measurements.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, doi: 10.5194/acp-2017-250.
  • Beraki, A.F., Landman, W.A., DeWitt, D. and Olivier, C. (2016). Global dynamical forecasting system conditioned to robust initial and boundary forcings: seasonal context. International Journal of Climatology,36,4455-4474,doi: 10.1002/joc.4643.
  • Engelbrecht, C.J., Landman, W.A. (2016). Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association.Climate Dynamics, 47, 295-313, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2836-2.
  • Muchuru, S., Botai, J.O., Botai, C.M., Landman, W.A. and Adeola, A.M. (2016). Variability of rainfall over Lake Kariba catchment area in the Zambezi river basin, Zimbabwe.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 124(1), 325-338, doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1422-1.
  • Muchuru, S., Landman, W.A. and DeWitt, D. (2016). Prediction of inflows into Lake Kariba using a combination of physical and empirical models. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 2570 - 2581, doi: 10.1002/joc.4513.
  • Ratnam, J.V., Behera, S.K., Doi, T., Ratna, S.B. and Landman, W.A. (2016). Improvements to the WRF seasonal hindcasts over South Africa by bias correcting the driving SINTEX-F2v CGCM fields. Journal of Climate, 29, 2815-2829, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0435.1.
  • Shirvani, A. and Landman, W.A. (2016). Seasonal precipitation forecast skill over Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 1887 - 1900, doi: 10.1002/joc.4467.
  • Beraki, A.F., Landman, W.A. and DeWitt, D. (2015). On the comparison between seasonal predictive skill of global circulation models: coupled versus uncoupled. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 120, 11151-11172, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023839.
  • Conway, D., Archer van Garderen, E., Deryng, D., Dorling, S., Krueger, T., Landman, W.A., Lankford, B., Lebek, K., Osborn, T., Ringler, C., Thurlow, J., Zhu T. and Dalin, C. (2015). Climate and southern Africa’s water-energy-food nexus. Nature Climate Change, 5, 837-846, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2735.
  • Engelbrecht, C.J., Landman, W.A., Engelbrecht F.A. and Malherbe, J. (2015). A synoptic decomposition of rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa. Climate Dynamics, 44(9-10), 2589-2607, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2230-5.
  • Garland, R.M., Matooane, M., Engelbrecht, F.A., Bopape, M., Landman, W.A., Naidoo, M., van der Merwe, J. and Wright, C.Y. (2015). Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12, 12577-12604; doi: 10.3390/ijerph121012577.
  • Muchuru, S., Landman, W.A., Midgley, G., Engelbrecht, F., van der Merwe, J. (2015). Future climate change challenges to sustainable forest management in the Zambezi Basin.Nature and Faune, 29 (2), 45-49.
  • Sweijd, N.A., Wright, C.Y. Westwood, A., Rouault, M., Landman, W.A., MacKenzie, M.L., Nuttall, J.J.C., Mahomed, H., Cousins, T. Winter, K., Berhoozi, F., Kalule, B., Kruger, P., Govender, T. and Minakawa, N. (2015). Climate change is catchy – but when will it really hurt? South African Medical Journal, 105 (12), 1018-1023, doi: 10.7196/SAMJ.2015.v105i12.10332.
  • Beraki, A.F., DeWitt, D., Landman, W.A. and Olivier, C. (2014). Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI. Journal of Climate, 27, 1719-1741. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00275.1.
  • Bopape, M.M., Engelbrecht, F.A., Randall, D.A. and Landman, W.A. (2014). Advances towards the development of a cloud resolving model in South Africa. South African Journal of Science, 110(9/10), 61-72, doi: 10.1590/sajs.2014/20130133.
  • Bopape, M.M., Engelbrecht, F.A., Randall, D.A. and Landman, W.A. (2014). Simulations of an isolated two-dimensional thunderstorm: sensitivity to cloud droplet size and the presence of graupel. Asia Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science, 50, 139-151, doi: 10.1007/s13143-014-0003-z.
  • Landman, W.A. (2014). How the International Research Institute for Climate and Society has contributed towards seasonal climate forecast modelling and operations in South Africa. Earth Perspectives, 1:22, doi: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-22.
  • Landman, W.A., Beraki, A., DeWitt, D. and Lötter, D. (2014). SST prediction methodologies and verification considerations for dynamical mid-summer rainfall forecasts for South Africa, Water SA, 40(4), 615-622, doi: 10.4314/wsa.v40i4.6.
  • Lazenby, M., Landman, W.A., Garland, R. and DeWitt, D. (2014). Seasonal temperature prediction skill over southern Africa and human health. Meteorological Applications, 21, 963-974, doi: 10.1002/met.1449.
  • Malherbe, J., Engelbrecht, F.A. and Landman, W.A. (2014). Response of the Southern Annular Mode to tidal forcing and the bidecadal rainfall cycle over subtropical southern Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119, 2032-2049. doi: 10.1002/2013JD021138.
  • Malherbe, J., Landman, W.A. and Engelbrecht, F.A. (2014). The bi-decadal rainfall cycle, Southern Annular Mode and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo river basin, southern Africa. Climate Dynamics, 42, 3121-3138, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-2027-y.
  • Malherbe, J., Landman, W.A., Olivier, C., Sakuma, H. and Luo, J.-J. (2014). Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa. Meteorological Applications, 21, 733-742, doi: 10.1002/met.1402.
  • Mathole, K., Ndarana, T., Beraki, A. and Landman, W.A. (2014). Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems. South African Journal of Science, 110, 69-76, doi: 10.1590/sajs.2014/20130161.
  • Muchuru, S., Landman, W.A., DeWitt, D. and Lötter, D. (2014). Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area. Water SA, 40 (3), 461-469, doi: 10.4314/wsa.v40i3.9.
  • Yuan, C., Tozuka, T., Landman, W.A. and Yamagata, T. (2014). Dynamical seasonal prediction of southern African summer precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 42, 3357-3374. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1923-5.
  • Malherbe, J., Engelbrecht, F.A. and Landman, W.A. (2013). Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2867-2886. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1635-2.
Published by Christel Hansen

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