Seasonal Forecast Worx

The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered through the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) prediction experiment (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/; Kirtman et al. 2014). NMME real-time seasonal forecast and hindcast (re-forecast) data are obtained from the data library (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/) of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI; http://iri.columbia.edu/).

NMME forecasts are routinely produced and are statistically improved and tailored for southern Africa and for global sea-surface temperatures by employees and post-graduate students in the Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology at the University of Pretoria. Statistical post-processing is performed with the CPT software (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/tools/cpt/).

Why do we apply statistical methods to climate model forecasts?

“…statistical correction methods treating individual locations (e.g. multiple regression or principal component regression) may be recommended for today’s coupled climate model forecasts”. (Barnston and Tippett, 2017).

Why do we not use just a single model in our forecasts?

“…multi-model forecasts outperform the single model forecasts…” (Landman and Beraki, 2012).

For the official seasonal forecast for South Africa, visit the South African Weather Service website at http://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/longrange/gfcsa/scw.pdf