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The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered through the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) prediction experiment (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/; Kirtman et al. 2014). NMME real-time seasonal forecast and hindcast (re-forecast) data are obtained from the data library (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/) of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI; http://iri.columbia.edu/).

NMME forecasts are routinely produced and are statistically improved and tailored for southern Africa and for global sea-surface temperatures by employees and post-graduate students in the Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology at the University of Pretoria. Statistical post-processing is performed with the CPT software (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/tools/cpt/). Click here to download the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) values in CPT format.

For the official seasonal forecast for South Africa, visit the South African Weather Service website at https://www.weathersa.co.za/home/seasonalclimate.