The latest seasonal forecast (September) predicts a weak El Niño, due to warming Central Pacific sea surface temperatures. This stands in contrast to to the CPC/IRI El Nino watch that predicts that El Niño has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019 (50-55% chance). 

With regards to rainfall in the SADC region, enhanced chances for favourable rainfall outcomes are expected over the north-eastern (summer rainfall region), southern (all-year region) and south-western parts (winter rainfall region). The remainder of the region is expected to experience dry conditions. Expect cool maximum spring temperatures along the southern coast, followed by warm temperatures for the forecast area for summer. For the detailed forecast click here.