The latest seasonal forecast (August) predicts a warming of the central Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. This suggests the occurrence of a weak to moderate El Niño. This stands in contrast to to the CPC/IRI El Nino watch that predicts that El Niño has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019 (50-55% chance). 

With regards to rainfall in the SADC region, favourable spring rainfall is predicted over the larger area. With mid-summer, however, large parts of the summer rainfall area will experience drier conditions. High maximum temperatures can be expected in mid-summer. For more on the forecast please click here.