The UP model predicts a significant El Niño event ranging from a strong 1.5°C to a very strong 2°C during the mid-summer period in the southern hemisphere. This aligns with forecasts from various international sources. As we move into Autumn, the model suggests a shift towards ENSO-neutral conditions.

Strong El Niño events, anticipated this summer, typically correlate with lower-than-average rainfall in the summer rainfall region. From November to January, there is an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall, particularly in the central and western parts. Conditions in the northeastern region might see more favourable rainfall.

Looking at December to March, the probabilities of below-normal rainfall remain elevated. From February to April, below-normal rainfall is expected overall, but some areas in the northwest might experience above-normal rainfall towards the end of the forecast period.

Throughout the forecast period, above-normal maximum temperatures are highly probable across the entire region. These forecasts align with expectations of mostly dry and hot conditions during El Niño seasons, leading to lower yields, reduced rainfall, and decreased water flows. Additionally, lower malaria cases are anticipated during this period.

The forecast can be accessed here. Have a look at our archive of forecasts here.