The UP model predicts a strong El Niño event (temperature increase of over 1.5°C) to a very strong event (temperature increase of over 2°C) during the mid-summer period in the southern hemisphere. This aligns with forecasts from various international sources.

Strong El Niño events, as predicted for this upcoming summer, typically lead to lower-than-average rainfall in the summer rainfall region. Here's a breakdown:

1. Between October and January, there's a higher chance of below-normal rainfall in the central and western parts, with more favorable conditions in the northeastern region.
2. From December to February, there are increased probabilities of mostly below-normal rainfall.
3. Between January and March, there's a greater likelihood of below-normal rainfall in western areas.

Additionally, higher-than-normal maximum temperatures are expected across almost the entire region during this forecast period.

These forecasts align with the anticipated outcomes during El Niño seasons, which include reduced crop yields, lower rainfall and river flows, and a decrease in malaria cases.

The forecast can be accessed here. Have a look at our archive of forecasts here.