The UP model predicts a weak La Nina event that develops into a 'cool ENSO-neutral state' in early 2023, which agrees with the majority of forecasts from international centres. The SW Cape is expected to experience below-normal rainfall totals up until December (the current forecast period). Late winter into spring is expected to be mostly drier than normal over the summer rainfall region. At this stage, there is an increased likelihood of an above-normal rainfall season toward mid-summer over the larger summer rainfall region.

The SW Cape may be warmer than normal, while mostly warmer than normal maximum temperatures are expected over the larger forecast region from late winter, except over the southern and western coastal regions where it may be cooler than normal.

The forecast can be accessed here. Have a look at our archive of forecasts here.