The UP model predicts weak La Niña conditions to persist throughout the 2021/22 summer season. Favourable rains are expected at the start of the rainfall season, especially in the northeastern parts. The southwestern and southern Cape, along with the northwest of the SADC region, are exceptions and are likely to experience an above-normal rainfall season. Cooler than normal maximum temperatures are expected over the northeastern interior and eastern and southern coastal areas early in the season, spreading further west and north as the season progresses. Higher than normal temperatures are expected over the western parts (including the southwestern Cape).

The tailored forecasts are in agreement with the rainfall forecasts for southern Africa. An increase in farm rainfall and yield is likely along with an increase in malaria occurrences over Limpopo and an increased inflow into Lake Kariba. The low Vaal Dam downstream flow forecast may be the result of the relatively dry spring season in the central and western parts of the catchment.

The forecast can be accessed here. Have a look at our archive of forecasts here.