The September Seasonal Forecast Worx predicts that current ENSO-neutral conditions should develop into a weak La Niña event by the end of the year. With the exception of the eastern parts, the forecasts this month show a reduced likelihood of a wetter than normal mid-summer. (Note: Spring (SON) forecast skill is very low for most of the Region). However, there are enhanced probabilities of a wetter than normal mid-summer over the eastern half of South Africa. In comparison, there are enhanced probabilities of a drier than normal spring in the SW and S Cape, and western half of the region.

The forecasts further suggest enhanced probabilities of warmer than average conditions over the larger part of the region during spring. The southwestern and southern coastal parts are likely to be cooler than average at first. Similarly, mid-summer temperatures over the eastern half are expected to be lower than average.

Finally, the tailored forecasts agree with the rainfall forecasts for Southern Africa. Increased crop yield and farm rainfall are likely. Furthermore, increased malaria occurrence over Limpopo modelled. Finally, an increased inflow into Lake Kariba is likely.

The forecast can be accessed here. Have a look at our archive of forecasts here.