The latest seasonal forecast (October) shows sea-surface temperature (SST) to continue to show a weak positive SST anomaly on the date line. This relatively warm sea area on the date line can lead to anomalous convection there that can in turn give rise to El Nino-like impacts over southern Africa.

Forecasts for the north-western parts are unfavourable during the forecast period. The Spring period could experience favourable rainfall conditions over the larger part of South Africa, except for the eastern Free State and KZN. For the second half of summer, the forecasts are mostly unfavourable for a wet conditions. With respect to temperature, predominantly high maximum temperatures are likely over the larger part of the forecast region.