The UP model is predicting the development of a weak La Niña event by early summer, although some international forecasts are showing a weak to moderate event. La Niña events are most often associated with predominantly above-normal rainfall in the summer rainfall region. However, there is large uncertainty regarding the likelihood of above-normal rainfall at the beginning of the summer rainfall season (i.e. the spring and early summer periods). Rainfall above normal levels only becomes more likely during the mid-summer rainfall season. The winter rainfall region may experience drier than normal conditions during spring.

Higher than normal maximum temperatures are likely over the larger region during spring, with lower than normal maximum temperatures occurring over the northern parts of Southern Africa towards summer.

The forecast can be accessed here. Have a look at our archive of forecasts here.