The weather forecast for JFM and FMA suggests a higher chance of below normal rainfall in many areas, except for the east and southeast regions where above normal rainfall is expected. As we move into MAM and AMJ, the prediction leans towards below normal rainfall overall, but the forecast accuracy for these seasons is uncertain, leading to lower confidence in the predictions.

Throughout the forecast period, there is a strong likelihood of above normal maximum temperatures across the entire region. The UP model predicts the presence of a medium to strong El Niño event (>1°C) during the Austral summer, aligning with some international forecasts. However, there is a trend towards ENSO neutral conditions by Winter.

The forecast can be accessed here. Have a look at our archive of forecasts here.