The latest seasonal forecast (July) predicts a weak of the central Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. This suggests the occurrence of a weak to moderate El Niño event towards summer. From the CPC/IRI El Niño Watch in May: El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the autumn and winter (50-55% chance).

With regards to rainfall in the SADC region, areas most likely associated with favourable rainfall outcomes are mainly restricted to the southwestern coastal regions. Favourable spring rain is possible over parts of the summer rainfall region. The larger part of the SADC region can expect high maximum temperatures.