The latest seasonal forecast (June) predicts a weak of the central Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. This suggests the occurrence of a weak to moderate El Niño event towards summer. From the CPC/IRI El Niño Watch in May: El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and autumn (55-60% chance).

With regards to rainfall in the SADC region, areas most likely associated with favourable rainfall outcomes are mainly restricted to the southern and southeastern coastal and interior regions. Favourable spring rain is possible over parts of the summer rainfall region. The larger part of the SADC region can expect high maximum temperatures, but in spring the high temperatures are likely to be restricted to the western half. For the full forecast please click here.