The latest seasonal forecast (May) predicts a weak warming of the central Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. This weak warming of temperatures is predicted to continue towards the end of the year. From the CPC/IRI El Niño Watch in May: El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and autumn (55-60% chance).

And what are our chances for rain in the SADC region? Areas most likely associated with favourable rainfall outcomes are mainly restricted to the southern and southeastern coastal and interior regions. Early spring rain is possible over the central interior. With reference to temperatures, predominantly high maximum temperatures are predicted towards the end of the forecast period. 

For the entire forecast please click here.