New model enables risk predictions for avian flu

PROBLEM

Avian influenza (AI) is an infectious viral respiratory disease that normally affects birds. However, due to the ability of the virus to mutate and its zoonotic pandemic potential, cases of human and other mammalian infections are becoming increasingly frequent. In livestock and birds, the disease is transmitted mainly through the air or food, as well as via saliva, nasal secretions and faeces, and humans are at risk of contamination when they consume uncooked or partially cooked meat. This highly contagious disease spreads very rapidly among poultry and affected birds will die in a matter of days. The effects of AI on local and global economies are enormous and could become devastating. Previous research on the subject has found that most countries are not well prepared to cope with a possible avian influenza pandemic.

SOLUTION

Dr Folorunso Oludayo Fasina, an associate professor in the Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases at the University of Pretoria, has developed a risk model to limit the spread of AI. As poultry is a major food item in Africa, the model was created for foodborne contamination specific to this continent, where infections have already been reported in 12 countries.

Dr Folorunso Oludayo Fasina

For his study, Dr Fasina identified 378 sites in Egypt and Nigeria, which both have large numbers of live bird markets, household poultry producers and local butchers. He also included various commercial abattoirs and professional veterinary authorities. All sites were analysed for their sensitivity to the overall risks of contamination and the spreading of the disease, and results indicated that live bird markets, poultry kept by households and local slaughtering practices offer prime conditions for the spreading of the virus.

The model that he developed as a result of this research makes it possible to do risk predictions and is intended to assist health policy makers in preventing future AI disasters.

PROGRESS

Dr Fasina says that although this disease is extremely contagious and involves major health and economic risks, it can be managed if the correct practices are followed. While he was conducting his research with a view to the development of the risk model, he was also involved in cultural campaigns to bring about a better understanding of the disease and the need for cultural change. He recommends that the teams that treat AI in various areas should include not only veterinarians and researchers involved in the scientific study of the virus, but also social scientists who are trained to work with communities. He says that the training of communities in hygienic slaughtering practices is absolutely essential to limiting the spread of the disease.

Dr Fasina's work also includes epidemiology research on avian influenza and an economic analysis of the disease to aid decision-making.

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