Those who can’t wait to see Zuma’s back are genuinely expecting that his removal will signify the beginning of a new start for the country. They entertain a hope that Mangaung will be kind to give them a leader who has no truck with corruption and is independent of party factions.

Accordingly, this fantasy leader would immediately get on with the nitty-gritty of governance, including rebuilding state institutions, delivering on public services, and creating much-needed confidence in the economy.

Such optimists should be reminded that the prospect of change through new leadership in the ANC exists only in the realm of fantasy. Any leader elected by the ANC would be rendered impotent by factional interests and degenerative political culture that possesses the party. The ANC has long been captured and re-fashioned as a front for promoting narrow factional interests at local, provincial and national spheres.

Whoever replaces Zuma will also be pulled by the puppet strings of factions. After all, for any leader to emerge they would need to appeal to factions in the ANC and sectoral interests in the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu). The latest name to find itself in the lottery of possible contenders is that of businessman-politician Tokyo Sexwale, who is pinning his hopes on the Anyone But Zuma movement — which is not a solid faction, but a fantasy itself.

Since he has amassed his own personal wealth, rather than coming to politics with an empty stomach, Sexwale is seen by his well-wishers as a potential shield against corruption. Most of his cheerleaders are, unfortunately, outside of the cut-throat politics of the ANC. Apart from his success in Mangaung being a remote possibility, Sexwale’s rise could turn out to be a frightening prospect were it to materialise.

Sexwale’s donation to Julius Malema’s family trust is a foretaste of what we could possibly expect from him. This donation to a prominent face of the anti-Zuma faction is an act that exemplifies the kind of degenerative political culture that has become synonymous with the ANC. This is particularly so given the alleged links between Malema’s family trust and a hive of tenderpreneurs in Limpo po.

There are plenty of examples of politicians who came to power with a silver spoon in the mouth, but could not resist stuffing their pockets with more from the state’s treasuries. Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecommunications billionaire turned prime minister in Thailand, was ousted in a military coup in 2006 amid rivals’ claims of corruption and abuse of power. He is still a fugitive from the law.

Italy’s former prime minister Silvio Belusconi is another tycoon-turned politician who had a string of corruption allegations following him, including collusion with the Sicilian mafia, false accounting and tax fraud.

It is delusional to expect a perfect party leader coming out of the ANC. In any case, there are only two kinds of groups likely to benefit from Zuma’s removal. The first is a new faction that would have worked hard to see Zuma kicked out and thus have a claim on the share of the spoils from the new leader who succeeds him. The second is the "Polokwane 40%" — the group that unsuccessfully promoted Thabo Mbeki ’s third-term ambition in Polokwane — and has been waiting for vengeance since.

Instead of obsessing about a new leader who might or might not emerge in Mangaung, we should be exploring better ways of grappling with our political challenges. These include our constraining electoral system, which places the power to elect the president with a party with a majority in Parliament and thus limits democratic choice and leaders’ accountability. The other is the governance gridlock created by the tug of war over power between Luthuli House, the Union Buildings and Cosatu. It is now no longer clear who is in charge of the country.

Promoting the lost causes of opposition politics remains one of the best hopes for long-term change. It is diversity in political contestation that could in the long run enrich our democracy.

The real failure is the current political order associated with the ANC. It has failed to fix governance and to create conditions for national economic success. It has also failed to produce credible leadership and an inspiring vision for the nation.

This article appereared in the Business Day of 25 May 2012.