The first scenario presents itself in the shape of the Democratic Alliance (DA) cutting deep into the ANC’s electoral base over time. This would see the DA notching up hefty electoral gains in 2014 as a confidence builder for its dreamed path to power. Some ANC supporters who switch allegiance to the DA at the polls may reason that by so doing, they are giving the ANC a wake-up call. The DA’s diverse support base may already be portraying a party on the rise to seizing political power.

However, this climb will reach a point of exhaustion. It is doubtful that the DA will eventually become a juggernaut that crushes the ANC at the polls. There is a significant section of the majority of blacks that just does not trust the DA. They see it as a fragment of the past white rule. The combative posture of DA leader Helen Zille helps to reinforce their dislike of the party. This subtle race-based antipathy towards the DA runs deep even among those who are dissatisfied about the state of the ANC.

Although it may dislike the ANC, one strand of the black middle class, especially public servants, sees its fortunes as tied up with a predominantly black rule that will build on the spoils of liberations, and advance equity and transformation. Their preferred mechanism for bringing about such change may therefore not be the DA, but rather a renewed ANC or another party that shares the ruling party’s historic ideals.

The second scenario entails a unified platform of different opposition parties, including the DA, the Congress of the People and the United Democratic Movement, established through an arrangement similar to the Convention for a Democratic SA. This platform would explore a new social compact for SA and search for enduring political solutions that transcend ideological differences.

It would culminate into the birth of a new party with big, but realisable, ideas about change that are sufficiently canvassed across society and have trusted leaders who inspire confidence about the future. Further, it would need to outline a strategy to fix SA’s racially polarised social structure, have a plan to improve the performance of the economy and present a systematic programme to resolve deficiencies in education.

A critical value of this platform would be to project a unified leadership that draws on capabilities across the political and race spectrum, and thus reviving hope that the country’s leadership is back in the game of nation building and committed to sustaining shared prosperity. What is likely to inhibit this initiative, however, is the inability of opposition leaders to put their ideological differences and parties’ interests aside.

The third scenario would have the ANC seizing the initiative to woo other smaller opposition parties in a move to isolate the DA and tighten its grip on power. This would be driven by recognition that loss of power is an imminent possibility and nothing short of internal renewal and co-opting other parties would help keep it in office.

In this way, the ANC would be hoping to buy more time into the future. It can use its patronage to cajole other political parties to join its own compact. Since the ANC lacks internal cohesion and is riddled with toxic factions, it will have no moral edge to persuade other parties into its fold.

The fourth scenario is that of a new party established by individuals that are not wedded to either the DA or the ANC. Some of these leaders may be active in civil society and the public service. Some could even come from other political parties, including the ANC, but are trusted as genuine proponents of change. This project would not have the ANC as its reference point. Neither would it assume the form of a splinter group. Its starting point would be a political vision that transcends the DA and the ANC.

Pragmatically, a new party that sets its sights on power would need to be black-led, but espouse a more inclusive political agenda for change. For its narrative to be effective, it would have to reach out across the racial divide. No doubt, such a transformational initiative would constitute a serious threat to the DA’s long-term survival. Some of the young black leaders the DA has invested in might jump ship as they are dissatisfied with the pace and depth of change within the party. A new party is a necessary investment to secure a better future for SA.

This article appeared in the Business Day of 9 November 2012