Talks about a possible grand coalition or electoral pact being worked out between Agang, the smaller parties and the Democratic Alliance (DA) have been gaining ground in the recent past.

In some sense, this notion of a grand coalition draws on the widespread desire for a credible alternative that could help strengthen South African democracy. But will a grand coalition be the magic bullet that will dent the African National Congress’s (ANC’s) hegemony? I doubt it.

The space of opposition politics in South Africa is not yet fully matured. Our party political landscape is still marked by great fluidity. There is an opportunity for newcomers such as Agang to make serious inroads in the electorate, including winning the hearts and minds of the disgruntled youth who would be first-time voters. That should be Agang’s preoccupation. The quality of leaders and the clarity of the party’s vision are the critical factors that will determine its viability in the long run.

Leadership and strategic clarity have always played a decisive role in the growth or decline of political parties in South Africa. If we look at the previous elections, parties that were seemingly powerful and played a prominent role in the negotiations for a new South Africa are not the ones that grew. The National Party gained 20% in the 1994 elections, but soon thereafter was consigned to the ash heap of history for lack of a strategic vision for the future.

The Inkatha Freedom Party, which in 1994 was the third-largest party, having gained 10% of the electoral share, has no future beyond its present leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi. Its support has declined to 4.5%. Newcomers such as the Democratic Party (DP) harvested a mere 1.7% of the votes during 1994 elections, gaining only seven seats in Parliament. Yet it is the second-biggest party today, rebranded as the DA.

On the face of it, there was no chance that the DP would exist for much longer in the 1990s. When the DP contested elections, it had just suffered a leadership crisis as its then leader, Zach de Beer, had to be forced out of office by senior party leaders who were worried about the effects of his ill health on the party’s stability.

The vacuum accelerated the meteoric rise of an untested politician, Tony Leon, who triumphed over a veteran leader, Ken Andrews, in a fierce leadership contest.

Even seasoned politicians such as Colin Eglin, who recounts those early days in his book, Crossing the Borders of Power, were initially unconvinced that the choice of Leon as a leader was good for the party. When he assumed leadership, Leon looked less like a seasoned politician and more like a witty lawyer you’d want to turn to when you are in trouble with the law.

Yet, in the next five years to 1999, through a combination of visionary leadership, combative parliamentary performance, and elevation to the title of the leader of the official opposition, the youthful Leon turned the party around and made it a force to be reckoned with.

The DP subsequently grew its electoral muscle from 1.7% in 1994 to 12.4% in 2004. Today, it boasts 67 seats in Parliament as the DA under Helen Zille.

Another newcomer that hit the ground with a bang was the Congress of the People. It broke all records for a start-up, gaining just more than 7% in its electoral debut and was rewarded with 30 seats in Parliament. It is bleeding today precisely because it has no long-term political strategy, lacks vision, and has no discernable set of values.

The lesson for Agang is that the story of political success outside of the ANC has largely been that of newcomers. The electorate rewards credible, visionary and committed leadership. It is a myth that the political market in South Africa is saturated and has no space for another opposition party. Ironically, this myth is peddled by the DA.

This brings us to the nebulous and unprincipled notion of political realignment or a grand coalition among existing opposition parties, including Agang.

Coalitions are bad for democracy if they are the result of pre-election backroom dealing. They could offer an undeserved lifeline to weaker parties that should perish at the ballot box, while loading healthy parties with the toxic leadership dynamics of the weaker ones. A party like Agang should aim to build its credibility through a good showing at the ballot first before it even contemplates coalitions. If it gains 5% of the electorate, that would be better than what the DP started with in 1994.

This article appeared in the Business Day of 19 April 2013