On Thursday, 1 August, in the evening could be a red letter sport for South Africa when Tatjana Smith dives into the pool to compete in the 200m-breaststroke at the Paris 2024 Olympics in France. If she wins, the Tuks swimmer will be the second South African athlete to win gold in the same event at two consecutive Olympic Games. Caster Semenya won the 800 metres at the London 2012 and Rio 2016 Olympic Games.

Smith has "BMT" (big match temperament). Or, to put it another way, when the going gets tough, Smith gets going. Her results are proof. Since 2018, she has medalled at every major event she has competed in. 

Her gold medal heroics include winning the 200m breaststroke at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, the 2022 World Championships, the 2018 and 2022 Commonwealth Games and the 2019 World University Games. The Tuks swimmer also set a world record during the Tokyo Games. Last year, she was the first South African female swimmer to win a world-long course swimming title. 

When speaking with Rocco Meiring, head coach of TuksSwimming, he emphasized that speculating on what could or could not happen during the Paris Olympics might be imprudent. This reference is based on an article that appeared in SwimSwam last month.

"This summer, the Olympic Games will take place in Paris. And, as usual, there is a lot of expectation for outstanding performances, legendary races and, of course, world records. Many will try to guess who the winners and medalists of the swimming events will be. It is tough to predict who they will be," Daniel Takata wrote for SwimSwam.

Using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and analyzing the extreme performances of athletes (fastest times in the world), SwimSwam utilized data from the top 100 performers in each event since 1990 to predict the estimated fastest times expected at the Games this year. According to this methodology, the projected winning time for the women's 200m breaststroke in Paris could be 2:18.63.

To put this in perspective, last year Russia's Evgenia Chikunova set a world record for swimming with a time of 2:17.95. Smith's world record time in 2021 was 2:18.95. So far this year, Smith is the fastest, having swum 2:19.01. 

Meiring expects Chikunova to compete at the Games in France.

"There is no official confirmation about this, but there are strong rumours that she will be in Paris. I want Tatjana to prepare herself to swim against the Russians. Tatjana will have her work cut out if she wants to win gold in the 200m-breaststroke again."

According to Meiring, Smith's build-up to the Games did not quite go as planned. Early this season, she sustained a Grade 2 tear in a muscle crucial in upper body movements when swimming. On doctor's advice, Smith took a ten-day break from training. 

"The doctor even warned Tatjana about competing at the National Championships, cautioning that if she aggravated the injury, there was a risk she could be sidelined for between six to eight months.

"Tatjana was adamant that she was going to compete. The doctor advised that if she does, she should only swim the heats. It did not happen. Tatjana changed her swimming technique to put less stress on the injured muscle and swam every final and won."