On Tuesday, 15 April 2025, the Centre for the Advancement of Scholarship (CAS) hosted a public lecture titled “Trump's Threat to Democracy and the Future of the Global Order,” delivered by Dr. Gregory F. Treverton, Professor of the Practice of International Relations and Spatial Sciences at the University of Southern California. The discussant for the meeting was Professor Christopher Isike, Head of the Department of Political Science and the Director of the African Centre for the Study of the United States at the University of Pretoria (ACSUS-UP). CAS Research Fellow Professor Peter Vale moderated the event.

Professor Nolwazi Mkhwanazi, CAS Director, opened the discussion, and Professor Vale introduced the discussants and the discussion, noting that the inflection point of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s policies is long gone, placing the world in a search for a new world order.

Dr Treverton, a former US foreign policy and intelligence official, opened his presentation by observing that the liberal international order is ending more rapidly than he once imagined. Dr Treverton structured his presentation around three major points: first, what was – a reflection on the post-Second World War international relations architecture, and the post-Bretton Woods institution period of thin globalisation, which laid the foundation for "hyperglobalisation." During this period, the US assumed that if globalisation brought prosperity, more globalisation would be better for America. However, US economic failures and China’s economic growth divided American opinions in this regard.

In his second point, Dr Treverton discussed what is: arguing that the world remains coalescing into two "loose clubs" – one centred around China and the other around the US. However, President Trump has disrupted this trajectory with what Treverton described as “tariffomania,”  a strategy seemingly aimed at using tariffs to shock trading partners into negotiating more favourable deals with the US. The current global order is also characterised by the deteriorating relationship between Europe and the US, underscored by Trump’s “tongue-lashing” at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and tariff threats to European Union (EU) countries.

Dr Treverton’s third point focused on what will be: as he expressed concern over the deteriorating image/profile of America, underlined by US internal political dysfunction, and funding cuts to health and education internally and globally, which reflects an uncharacteristic growing US cruelty. He also pointed out a strange resurgence of patriarchal, almost hyper-masculine conservatism, where value is tied to physical labour and traditional roles. He concluded with a provocative question: will the ongoing deep cultural and political divides culminate in physical violence or be resolved peacefully?

In his response, Professor Christopher Isike offered a critical analysis of the current crisis in US democracy and its implications for the global liberal order. Building on Professor Treverton’s reflections, Professor Isike focused on the consequences of “Trumpism” for US foreign policy and the legitimacy of liberal democracy worldwide. He argued that what appears to be a rupture in the continuity of US foreign policy is part of a broader global shift that began during the first Trump administration.

Professor Isike observed President Trump’s contribution to weakening the quality of democracy in the US and how it has “eroded their moral authority in promoting democratic norms abroad.” This has seriously impacted the global liberal order, thereby accelerating its demise. He argued that Trump’s current term is simply a more aggressive delinking from longstanding diplomatic norms and alliances compared to his previous term. At the heart of this disruption is a desire to reassert white American male dominance – a theme with profound civilizational and cultural undercurrents.

Professor Isike also admitted that, regardless of individual opinions or positions, the US remains a major actor whose domestic politics have global repercussions. However, the vulnerability of America’s democracy has three main effects on the global liberal order: first, Trump’s attack on the US judiciary has the potential to legitimise illiberal leaders across the world; second, US retreats from multilateral relations means authoritarian models will gain appeal, particularly in the Global South due to the power vacuum that is created by a receding US leadership; and third, that the future global order will be shaped by not only military power but also diverse ideas and norms – many emerging from non-Western states and traditions.

In the discussion that followed, both presenters were prompted by the audience to respond to questions on the domestic discord that preceded radical political choices by the US electorate, including economic dissatisfaction and identity politics based on race, gender, and nationality.

The changing world order and power-wielding by the largest countries were also debated, and South Africa’s diplomatic fallouts with the US were attributed to growing criticism of the US out of South Africa, especially concerning the Gaza situation and other non-aligned international policy stances. It was also contended that despite America’s normative or “soft” power decline, other actors appear unprepared to take up the most significant global leadership roles due to the financial and normative burdens of such responsibility.

The conversation concluded with a reflection on the decline of US democratic institutions and global influence. This has fed a broader crisis in global democratic confidence, threatening the core legitimacy of the liberal international order. This is reflected in a weakening of global norms of democracy, human rights, and rule-based order and the growing tendency to replace them with a model of competitive authoritarianism and national self-interest. However, there is room for optimism as global order has always been a shared endeavor, and many states of the Global South are eager to participate in a world in which there are fewer double standards and more fairness.

Relatedly, although the structure of the global system was established in the early twentieth century to benefit Western countries and uphold their norms and values, many of these values are now shared and held up as global standards. This will hopefully shield the globe from any serious negative fallout from the current isolationist position of Trump’s America.

Gregory Treverton stepped down as Chair of the National Intelligence Council in January 2017. He is Chair of the Global TechnoPolitics Forum, senior advisor to the Transnational Threats Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a professor of the practice of international relations and Spatial Sciences at the University of Southern California. He has worked in government, academia and non-governmental organisations. He is the author and editor of numerous publications, most recently Telling Truth to Power: A History of the National Intelligence Council (edited with Robert Hutchings), Oxford University Press, 2019 and National Intelligence and Science: Beyond the Great Divide in Analysis and Policy (with Wilhelm Agrell), Oxford University Press, 2015.