Dr Ansie Smit

I'm a researcher with a PhD in Mathematical Statistics with application to geosciences. I have participated in over 30 commercial and research projects; successfully co-supervised 8 postgraduate students in Geoinformatics and Statistics and co-authored 16 articles in high-ranking peer-reviewed journals.  

My research interests are methodologies to counter the effect of missing data in the statistical analysis procedures, numerical and computing techniques, data analysis, applied statistical methods necessary for hazard and risk assessment, and the derivation of general worst-case scenarios, This includes the development of a methodology that can be applied to hazard and risk assessment for various natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunami, floods, fires, and operational risks.

My aim is to improve my statistical skills in academia, especially focussing on hazard and risk assessment to the benefit of society. 

I enjoy working with students and other academics in a multidisciplinary environment and am capable of functioning independently or as part of a dynamic team.


Contact details

Email: ansie.smit(at)up.ac.za

Tel: +27 12 420 2282


Research Interests

  • Numerical and computational techniques 

  • Applied statistical methods 

  • Statistical seismology 

  • Natural hazard and risk estimation



2019: PhD Mathematical Statistics, University of Pretoria
2010: MSc Mathematical Statistics, University of Pretoria
2003: Bsc(Hons) Mathematical Statistics, University of Pretoria
2002: BSc Financial Mathematics, University of Pretoria


2020 to current     Senior Lecturer (Geology) & Researcher (UP Natural Hazard Centre, Africa, UP)

2013 to 2019        Researcher (UP Natural Hazard Centre, UP)

2008 to 2013        Researcher (Aon Benfield Natural Hazard Centre Africa, UP)
2006 to 2008        Munnik Basson Dagama Attorney, Business Analyst
2005 to 2006       AC Nielsen Marketing and Media Pty Ltd, Research Statistician
2004 to 2004       Junior Lecture (Statistics), University of Pretoria (UP)



Dyson, L.L., Pienaar, N., Smit, A., Kijko, A. (under review). An ERA-Interim HAILCAST hail climatology for southern Africa. Submitted to International Journal of Climatology.

Smit, A., Stein, A., Kijko, A. (2019). Bayesian Inference in Natural Hazard Analysis for Incomplete and Uncertain Data. Environmetrics. doi.org/10.1002/env.2566

Ngongang, A.W., Lenhardt, N. and Smit, A. (2019). Seismic hazard parameter estimation of the Mount Cameroon volcanic region (Cameroon) based on a combination of mixed catalogs. Natural Hazards, pp.369-388. doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3547-x.

Esterhuyse, S., Avenant, M., Redelinghuys, N., Kijko, A., Glazewski, J., Plit, L., Kemp, M., Smit, A. and Vos, A.T., (2018). Monitoring of unconventional oil and gas extraction and its policy implications: A case study from South Africa. Energy Policy, 118, pp.109-120. doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.03.001

Kijko, A., Smit, A., Papadopoulos, G.A. and Novikova, T., (2018). Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones. Pure Appl. Geophys. 175 (4), 1287-1304. doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1727-3

Esterhuyse, S., F Sokolic, N Redelinghuys, M Avenant, A Kijko, J. Glazewski, L. Plit, M. Kemp, A. Smit, A.T Vos, M.J. von Maltitz (2017). Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction. Royal Society Open Science, Energy Policy, 118, pp. 109-120. doi.org/10.1098/rsos.171044

Hamdache, M., Peláez, J.A., Kijko, A. and Smit, A. (2017). Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region. Natural Hazards, 86 (2), 273-293, 2, doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2514-7

Smit, A., Kijko, A., Stein, A. (2017). Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Catalogues with Application to Tsunamigenic Regions in the Pacific Ocean. Pure and Applied Geophysics. Vol 174 (8): 3065-3081. doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1564-4

Kijko, A. and Smit, A., (2017). Estimation of the Frequency–Magnitude Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value without Making Assumptions on Levels of Completeness. Seismological Research Letters, 88(2A), pp.311-318. doi.org/10.1785/0220160177

Liebenberg, K., Smit, A., Coetzee, S., Kijko, A. (2017). A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa. Acta Geophysica. doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0052-7

Kijko, A., Smit, A. and Sellevoll, M.A., (2017). Reply to “Comment on ‘Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation of Uncertainty of Earthquake‐Occurrence Model’by Andrzej Kijko, Ansie Smit, and Markvard A. Sellevoll” by Gert Zöller. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 107(4): 1979-1982. doi.org/10.1785/0120160303

Chapter in book:  Kijko, A., Kahle, B., Smit, A., Esterhuyse, E., Glazewski, J. (2016) Hydraulic Fracturing, Waster Water Pumping and Seismicity.  Chapter 13 in Proposed Hydraulic Fracturing in the Karoo: Critical Perspectives, Jan Glazewski (ed) Juta and Co, Cape Town, In Press. juta.co.za/products/hydraulic-fracturing-in-the-karoo-critical-legal-and-environmental-perspectives/

Esterhuyse, S., Avenant, M., Redelinghuys, N., Kijko, A., Glazewski, J., Plit, L., Kemp, M., Smit, A., Vos, A.T. and Williamson, R. (2016). A review of biophysical and socio-economic effects of unconventional oil and gas extraction–Implications for South Africa. Journal of Environmental Management, 184, pp.419-430. doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.09.065

Kijko, A., Smit, A., Sellevoll, M.A. (2016). Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation if Uncertainty of Earthquake-Occurrence Model. Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 106(3). pp.1210-1222. doi.org/10.1785/0120150252 

Kijko, A., Smit, A., Van De Coolwijk, N. (2015). A scenario approach to estimate the maximum foreseeable loss for buildings due to an earthquake in Cape Town. SAAJ 15, pp1-30. doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v15i1.1

Du Plessis, I., Liebenberg, K., Smit, A., Coetzee, S., Kijko, A. (2015). Preliminary investigation into the cause of acid mine water induced seismicity in Johannesburg. South African Journal of Geomatics, 4(3), pp299-308. dx.doi.org/10.4314/sajg.v4i3.10

Paasche, H., Eberle, D., Das, S., Cooper, A., Debba, P., Dietrich, P., Dudeni-Thlone, N., Gläßer, C., Kijko, A., Knobloch, A., Lausch, A., Meyer, U., Smit, A., Stettler, A., Werban, U. (2014). Are Earth Sciences lagging behind in data integration methodologies? Environmental Earth Sciences, 71. pp 1997-2003. doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2931-9   

Technical Report: Esterhuyse, S., Avenant M, Watson M, Redelinghuys N, Kijko A, Glazewski J, Plit LA, Kemp M, Smit A, Sokolic F, Vos AT. (2014). Development of an interactive vulnerability map and monitoring framework to assess the potential environmental impact of unconventional oil and gas extraction by means of hydraulic fracturing. Water Research Commission Report; 2014 Oct. wrc.org.za/Knowledge%20Hub%20Documents/Research%20Reports/2149-1-14.pdf

Kijko, A., Smit, A., (2012). Extension of the b-value Estimator for Incomplete Catalogs. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 102, Number 3, 1283–1287. DOI: 10.1785/0120110226. doi.org/10.1785/0120110226



  • July 2019. Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). Zagreb, Croatia
  • Nov 2019. 10th European Conference on Severe Storms. Krakow, Poland.
  • Nov 2019. 61th Annual South African Statistical Association Conference, Port Elizabeth, South Africa.
  • Dec 2019. 7th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Jan 2018. Summer School. Bayesian Inference. Foundations and Applications. Betty’s Bay, South Africa
  • Nov 2018. 60th Annual South African Statistical Association Conference, Florida, Johannesburg, South Africa.
  • Dec 2018. CFE-CMS Statistics 2018. Conference of International networks of Computational and Financial Econometrics, CFEnetwork, Computational and Methodological Statistics, CMStatistics. Pisa, Italy.
  • June 2017, 10th Extreme Value Analysis Conference, Delft, The Netherlands
  • July 2017, R Software Fundamentals with Applications to Statistical Analyses and Modelling, Johannesburg, South Africa
  • August 2017, IAPSO-IAMAS-IAGA Joint Assembly, Cape Town, South Africa
  • November 2017, 59th Annual South African Statistical Association Conference, Bloemfontein, South Africa
  • April 2016, European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria
  • June 2016, Global Earthquake Model: Regional Training on Risk Assessment for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • August 2016, Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) GIS User Seminar, Pretoria, South Africa.
  • November 2016, 58th Annual South African Statistical Association Conference, Cape Town, South Africa.
  • February, South African Symposium on Numerical and Applied Mathematics, Pretoria, South Africa.
  • August 2015, Geomatics Indaba 2015, Johannesburg, South Africa.
  • September 2015, Advances in Extreme Value Analysis and Application to Natural Hazards (EVAN), Spain.
  • November 2017, 57th Annual South African Statistical Association Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.
  • April 2014, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Austria.
  • July 2014, South African Statistical Association Gauteng Chapter Meeting, Pretoria, south Africa.
  • October 2014, International Workshop on Mega-Earthquake and Tsunamis in Subduction Zones - Forecasting Approaches and Implications for Hazard Assessments, Greece.
  • January 2013, 8th Annual AfricaArray Workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa. Assisted in half-day training course on seismic hazard.
  • April 2013, Colloquium on Data Integration Technologies for Earth System Modelling and Resource Management, Pretoria, South Africa.
  • July 2013, Aon Benfield Research Conference, Singapore.
  • March 2012, ICSU ROA Hazard and Disasters Projects Workshop, Centurion, South Africa.
  • March 2012, Fluid-Induced Seismicity Workshop, Boksburg, South Africa.
  • July 2012, Aon Benfield Research Conference, London, England.
  • September 2012, GFZ Potsdam International Training Course on Seismology, Seismic Data Analysis, Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation, Morocco.
  • January 2011, 23rd Colloquium of African Geology, Johannesburg, South Africa.
  • April 2011, 
Extreme Natural Hazard and Societal Implications Workshop (ENHANS), Pretoria, South Africa.
  • April 2011, First Scientific Seminar of the Japan-SA Collaborative Research Project, Johannesburg, South Africa.
  • August 2011, 4th Annual Seismology Workshop on Fluid-Induced Seismicity, Pretoria, South Africa.
  • November 2011, 7th Annual AfricaArray Workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa.
  • July 2009, AfricaArray 5th annual workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa.
  • August 2009, 57th Session of the International Statistics Institute (ISI), Durban, South Africa.
Published by Ansie Smit

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