Prof Andrzej Kijko


Prof Andrzej Kijko is the Director of the University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre, Africa which is located within the premises of the University of Pretoria. As an internationally acclaimed researcher, he has been active in engineering geophysics and seismology for over 36 years. Prof Kijko’s interests and responsibilities have taken him around the world and he has a wide range of experience from the various research posts and consulting positions he has held.

More than 100 of his publications have appeared in academic journals. Prof Kijko is the author of a book on statistical methods in engineering seismology and co-authored a book on mining seismology. At present he is working on a book on statistical methods in seismology, with special attention to engineering applications. This book was initiated and co-authored by the late Prof Keiiti Aki.


Contact details

Email: andrzej.kijko(at)

Tel: +27 12 420 3613


Research Interests

  • Engineering geophysics and seismology

  • Numerical and computational techniques

  • Applied statistical methods


Current Research Projects

As head of the University of Pretoria Natural Hazards the goal is to expand and adjust the mathematical methods used to accommodate poor and incomplete data in seismology.  Further development of these mathematical methods is aimed to become create formulisms that are useful for a wide variety of implementations where not enough is known to use methods which require complete data. In many instances, when considering natural hazards, there is a trove of datasets that consist of good but incomplete measurements.  These datasets are meaningful but cannot be analysed using first-world methodologies. This syndrome is endemic to the third world where more sophisticated mathematics is required to compensate for the lack of data, skill shortages and lack of funds. The same approach used in seismology to overcome the lack of data can also be applied to hailstorms, tsunami, floods as well as terror related catastrophe.

The research over the coming years will be aimed producing research that could assist in facilitating economic growth in the developing world while protecting life and property as well as contributing to sustainable financial systems by quantifying various risks. Opportunities such as the 2010 football World Cup in South Africa requires the support of models as well as the use of good research to learn lessons for the future.


1979 DSc (Habilitation), University of Mining and Metallurgy, Krakow, Poland

1974 PhD Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

1968-1972 MSc Physics, Lomonosov State University, Moscow, Russia


2013 – current: University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre, Africa, University of Pretoria

2008-2013      : Aon Benfield Natural Hazard Centre Africa, University of Pretoria, Professor and Director

1995-2008      : Department of Seismology, Manager, Head of Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, RSA

1991-1995      : Anglo-American Corporation, Gold and Uranium Division, South Africa

1972-1990      : Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland


Teaching and Project Supervision

Most of Prof Kijko’s work has involved the development of models of intraplate seismicity and their application in seismic hazard and risk assessment for critical structures. From 1994 he was involved in the Nuclear Siting Investigation Programme for ESKOM and in seismic hazard estimation in Southern Africa. His involvement over the last 10 years in seismic hazard assessment in intraplate seismic areas has resulted in the development of a unique methodology of seismic hazard assessment which allows the use of instrumental observations of recent seismicity along with historic, paleo- and neotectonic information. The procedure has been applied in seismic hazard assessment in areas of typical intraplate seismicity, such as the New Madrid Zone in the United States, the Vrancea Seismic Zone and Northern Europe, and in the development of seismic hazard maps for Southern Africa. In his recent research he has concentrated on the application of the procedure in the insurance industry. Also his work was focused on research in, and application of statistical methods to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in mines.


Affiliations and Memberships

  • Co-editor of the journal “Natural Hazards”, published bi-monthly by the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards (Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands).

  • Co-editor of the journal “Pure an Applied Geophysics” published bi-monthly in the United States.

  • Co-editor of the journal "Journal of Seismology". Springer.

  • Member of the Editorial Advisory Board of the review series “Trends in Geophysical Research”

  • Member of the Editorial Board of “Earth Science India”.


Membership of Professional Bodies

  • Registered Professional Natural Scientist (Earth Scientist), May 1997

  • Member of the Seismological Society of America

  • Member of the South Africa Geophysical Association

  • The South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions

  • South African Statistical Association


Books and chapters in books.

An Introduction to Mining Seismology. S.J. Gibowicz, and A. Kijko, Academic Press, San Diego, 1994.

Statistical Methods in Mining Seismology, A. Kijko, South African Geophysical Association,  Johannesburg, 1996.

 Hydraulic Fracturing, Waster Water Pumping and Seismicity.  Chapter 13 (2016). Kijko, A., Kahle, B., Smit, A., Esterhuyse, E., Glazewski, J. (2016)in Proposed Hydraulic Fracturing in the Karoo: Critical Perspectives, Jan Glazewski (ed) Juta and Co, Cape Town,


Some publications in national and international journals (2009-2018)

Kijko, A., Smit, A., Papadopoulos, G.A. and Novikova, T., (2018). Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones. Pure and Applied Geophysics, pp.1-18. (Accepted in 2017).

Beirlant, J., A Kijko, T Reynkens, JHJ Einmahl (2018 online version). Estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude using extreme value methodology: the Groningen case, Natural Hazards, 1-23, 2017 (online publication).

Esterhuyse, S., F Sokolic, N Redelinghuys, M Avenant, A Kijko, et al. (2017). Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction. Royal Society open science 4 (11), 171044. Open online publication.

Hamdache, M., Peláez, J.A., Kijko, A. and Smit, A. (2017). Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region. Natural Hazards, 86 (2), 273-293, 2, 2017

Kijko, A. and Smit, A., (2017). Estimation of the Frequency–Magnitude Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value without Making Assumptions on Levels of Completeness. Seismological Research Letters, 88(2A), pp.311-318.

Kijko, A., Smit, A. and Sellevoll, M.A., (2017). Reply to “Comment on ‘Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation of Uncertainty of Earthquake‐Occurrence Model’by Andrzej Kijko, Ansie Smit, and Markvard A. Sellevoll” by Gert Zöller. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

Liebenberg, K., Smit, A., Coetzee, S., Kijko, A. (2017). A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa. Acta Geophysica.

Smit, A., Kijko, A., Stein, A. (2017). Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Catalogues with Application to Tsunamigenic Regions in the Pacific Ocean. Pure and Applied Geophysics.

Esterhuyse, S., Avenant, M., Redelinghuys, N., Kijko, A., Glazewski, J., Plit, L., Kemp, M., Smit, A., Vos, A.T. and Williamson, R. (2016). A review of biophysical and socio-economic effects of unconventional oil and gas extraction–Implications for South Africa. Journal of Environmental Management, 184, pp.419-430.

Hamdache, M., Peláez, J.A., Kijko, A. and Smit, A. (2016). Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region. Natural Hazards, Online version, pp.1-21..

Kijko, A., Smit, A., Sellevoll, M.A. (2016). Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation if Uncertainty of Earthquake-Occurrence Model. Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 106(3). In Press.

Saunders, I., Kijko, A. and Fourie, C.J.S., (2016). Statistical evaluation of seismic event location accuracy by the South African National Seismograph Network over four decades. South African Journal of Geology, 119(1), pp.291-304.

Kijko, A., Smit, A., Van De Coolwijk, N. (2015). A scenario approach to estimate the maximum foreseeable loss for buildings due to an earthquake in Cape Town. SAAJ 15, pp1-30.

Du Plessis, I.,  Liebenberg, K., Smit, A., Coetzee, S., Kijko, A. (2015). Preliminary investigation into the cause of acid mine water induced seismicity in Johannesburg. South African Journal of Geomatics, 4(3), pp299-308.

Pule, T.,  Fourie, C.J.S., Kijko, A., Midzi, V. (2015) Comparison and quantitative study of vulnerability/damage in South Africa. South African Journal of Geology, 118(4), pp335-354.

Karimiparidari, S., Zare, M., Memarian, H., Kijko, A. (2013). Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes. Journal of Seismology. 17, 3. pp 897-911. 

Esterhuyse S, Avenant M, Watson M, Redelinghuys N, Kijko A, Glazewski J, Plit LA, Kemp M, Smit A, Sokolic F, Vos AT. Development of an interactive vulnerability map and monitoring framework to assess the potential environmental impact of unconventional oil and gas extraction by means of hydraulic fracturing. WRC Report; 2014 Oct.

Paasche, H.,  Eberle, D., Das, S., Cooper, A., Debba, P., Dietrich, P., Dudeni-Thlone, N., Gläßer, C., Kijko, A., Knobloch, A., Lausch, A., Meyer, U., Smit, A., Stettler, A., Werban, U. (2014). Are Earth Sciences lagging behind in data integration methodologies? Environmental Earth Sciences, 71. pp 1997-2003.

Kijko, A., Smit, A., (2012). Extension of the b-value Estimator for Incomplete Catalogs. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 102, Number 3, 1283–1287. DOI: 10.1785/0120110226.

Kijko, A., (2012). On Bayesian procedure for maximum earthquake magnitude estimation. Research in Geophysics, 2, Number 1. /journals/index.php/rg [Research in Geophysics [eISSN 2038-9663] is a new Open Access, online-only, peer-reviewed journal published by PAGEPress, Pavia, Italy. All credits and honours to PKP for their OJS.]

Tsapanos, T.M., Koravos, G.Ch., Zygouri, V., Tsapanos, M.T., Kortsari, A.N., Kijko, A., Kalogirou, E.E., (2011). Deterministic Seismic Hazard analysis for the city of Corinth-Central, Greece. Journal of Balkan Geophysical Society, 14, Number 1, 1-14.

Kijko, A. (2011) Seismic Hazard in Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics Vol 1 (1st Edition). Edited by H.K. Gupta. Springer. pp1107-1120.

Singh, M., Kijko, A., Van den Berg, L., (2011). Seismic Ranking for Large Dams in South Africa. ActaGeophysica, 59, Number 1, 72-90.

Heiderzadeh, M., Kijko, A., (2011). A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Nat Hazard. 56. 577-593.

Singh, M., Kijko, A., Durrheim, R., (2011). First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa. Nat Hazad. 59, Number 1, 383-400. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9762-3.

Kijko, A., Singh, M., (2011). Statistical Tools for Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude Estimation. Acta Geophysica. 59, Number 4, 674-700.

Singh, M., Kijko, A., Van den Berg, L., (2009). Seismic risk ranking for large dams in South Africa. SANCOLD conference 2009: Sustainable development of dams in Southern Africa. 4-6 November 2009 (peer reviewed).

Saunders, I., M. Brandt, J. Steyn, D. Roblin and A. Kijko (2008). The South African National Seismograph Network. Seismol. Research Letters, 79, Number 2, 203-210.

Mohammad Heidarzadeh , Moharram D. Pirooz, Costas E. Synolakis and Andrzej Kijko. (2008), A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the Makran Subduction Zone at the Northwestern Indian Ocean. Journal of Coastal Engineering.

Singh, M., A. Kijko and R. Durrheim. (2009). Seismotectonic Models for South Africa. Synthesis of Geoscientific Information, Problems and Way Forward. Seismol. Research Letters, 89, Number 1, 71-80.


Some Book Reviews

M. Bejaichund and A. Kijko. Book review, Texas Earthquakes. By Cliff Froehlich and Scott D. Davis. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162, 2257-2258, 2005.

M. Bejaichund and A. Kijko. Book review, The Use of Historical Data in Natural Hazard Assessments, eds Thomas Glade, Paola Albini and Felix Frances. Vol. 163, 2006, 247-251.

C. Randall and A. Kjko A. Book review, Time Series Analysis and Inverse Theory for Geophysics by David Gubbins, Cambridge University Press, 2004.



June 2017, 10th Extreme Value analysis Conference, Delft, The Netherlands.

October 2017, CODATA 2017, Conference, 'Global Challenges and Data-Driven Science, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

April 2016, Seismological Society of America (SSA) Annual Meeting 2016, Reno, Neva, USA.

September 2016, European Seismological Commission (ESC), 35th General Assembly, Trieste, Italy.

February 2015, South African Symposium on Numerical and Applied Mathematics, South Africa. Professor Kijko gave a keynote presentation.

May 2015,  All Russian Scientific Conference, Geodynamical process and Natural Hazards. Lessons of Neftegorsk. Russia. Professor Andrzej Kijko gave an invited lectures.

August 2015, Seismic Risk Symposium, Cape Town, South Africa.

November 2015, 57th Annual South African Statistical Association Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

March 2014, Fennovoima PSHA. Group 1 Workshop (WS3), Finland. 

April 2014, 2014 Seismological Society of America, Alaska. 

July 2014, South African Statistical Association Gauteng Chapter Meeting, Pretoria, South Africa.

August 2014, Unconventional Gas - Just the Facts, Pretoria, South Africa. 

October 2014, Fennovoima PSHA. Group 1 Workshop (WS4), Finland.

January 2013, 8th Annual AfricaArray Workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa.  Prof Kijko presented the half-day training course on seismic hazard.

March 2013, 8th Gulf Seismic Forum, Oman, Muscat.

March 2013, 3rd Project Workshop on Seismic Risk and Loss Estimation project: Assessment of seismic hazard and risk in Emirate of Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi. Prof Kijko served as an external advisor.

April 2013, Seismological Society of America, Salt Lake City, USA.

April 2013, Colloquium on Data Integration Technologies for Earth System Modelling and Resource Management, Pretoria, South Africa.

Novermber 2013, Fennovoima Start-up Meeting, Workshop 1, Helsinki, Finland. Prof Kijko served as an external advisor.

January 2012, SSHA Level3 Thyspunt - Review of Database and Discussion of Alternative Models, Workshop 2, Stellenbosch, South Africa.

March 2012,  ICSU ROA Hazard and Disasters Projects Workshop, Centurion, South Africa.

March 2012, Fluid-Induced Seismicity Workshop, Boksburg, South Africa.

April 2012, 2nd Combined Science and Technology Train and Space Geodesy Observatory Workshop, Matjiesfontein. Prof Kijko was invited to present a lecture.

July 2012, Aon Benfield Research Conference, London, England.

August 2012, European Seismological Commissions, 33rd General Assembly, Moscow, Russia.

October 2012, Actuarial Society 2012 Convention, Cape Town, South Africa.

January 2011, 23rd Colloquium of African Geology, Johannesburg, South Africa.

April 2011, 
Hosted the Extreme Natural Hazard and Societal Implications Workshop (ENHANS), Pretoria, South Africa.

April 2011, First Scientific Seminar of the Japan-SA Collaborative Research Project, Johannesburg, Pretoria.

May 2011, 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (STATSEI7), Greece-Thera (Santorini)

July 2011, IUGG Joint Symposia, Melbourne Australia.

July 2011, Aon Benfield Research 2011 Conference, London, England.       

August 2011, National Science Week (Kimberly)  hosted by the Department of Science and Technology & National Institute for Higher Education (NIHE) of the Northern Cape. Prof Kijko invited to present a lecture on “Tsunami, how relevant are they to us in South Africa?”.

August 2011, 4th Annual Seismology Workshop on Fluid-Induced Seismicity, Pretoria, South Africa.

November 2011, 7th Annual AfricaArray Workshop,  Johannesburg, South Africa.

June 2010, 32nd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission (ESC), Montpellier France.

June 2010, Aon Benfield Research, London, England.

November 2009, 
South African National Committee on Large Dams (Sancold) Bi-annual, Drakensberg, South Africa.

January 2009, International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI) General Assembly, Cape Town, South Africa.

June 2009, Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Madrid, Spain.(invited keynote lecture)

June 2009, Global Earthquake Model (GEM) International Workshop, Germany.

July 2009, AfricaArray 5th annual workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa.

August 2009, 57th Session of the International Statistics Institute (ISI), Durban, South Africa.


Published by Ansie Smit

Copyright © University of Pretoria 2022. All rights reserved.

FAQ's Email Us Virtual Campus Share Cookie Preferences