Andrzej Kijko



University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre, Africa

Office: 4-30

E-mail: [email protected]

Phone: +27 (0)12 420 3613

  • Engineering geophysics and seismology
  • Numerical and computational techniques
  • Applied statistical methods

1979 DSc (Habilitation), University of Mining and Metallurgy, Krakow, Poland

1974 PhD Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

1968-1972 MSc Physics, Lomonosov State University, Moscow, Russia

  • 2013 – current: University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre, Africa, University of Pretoria
  • 2008-2013: Aon Benfield Natural Hazard Centre Africa, University of Pretoria, Professor and Director
  • 1995-2008 Department of Seismology, Manager, Head of Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
  • 1991-1995 Anglo-American Corporation, Gold and Uranium Division, South Africa
  • 1972-1990 Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland


Most of his work has involved the development of models of intraplate seismicity and their application in seismic hazard and risk assessment for critical structures. From 1994 he was involved in the Nuclear Siting Investigation Programme for ESKOM and in seismic hazard estimation in Southern Africa. His involvement over the last 10 years in seismic hazard assessment in intraplate seismic areas has resulted in the development of a unique methodology of seismic hazard assessment which allows the use of instrumental observations of recent seismicity along with historic, paleo- and neotectonic information. The procedure has been applied in seismic hazard assessment in areas of typical intraplate seismicity, such as the New Madrid Zone in the United States, the Vrancea Seismic Zone and Northern Europe, and in the development of seismic hazard maps for Southern Africa. In his recent research he has concentrated on the application of the procedure in the insurance industry.

Also his work was focused on research in, and application of statistical methods to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in mines.


  • Co-editor of the journal “Natural Hazards”, published bi-monthly by the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards (Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands).
  • Co-editor of the journal “Pure an Applied Geophysics” published bi-monthly in the United States.
  • Member of the Editorial Advisory Board, responsible for publication of the “Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology” - a centennial publication of the Committee of Education of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI).
  • Regional Editor of the journal “Africa Geoscience Review”, Paris, France
  • Member of the Editorial Advisory Board of the review series “Trends in Geophysical Research”
  •  Member of the Editorial Board of “Earth Science India”.

  • Registered Professional Natural Scientist (Earth Scientist), May 1997
  • Member of the Seismological Society of America
  • Member of the South Africa Geophysical Association
  • The South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions


·       8th Annual AfricaArray Workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa, 17-18 January 2013.  Professor A Kijko hosted the half-day training course on seismic hazard.

·       8th Gulf Seismic Forum, Oman, Muscat, 3-6 March 2013.

·       3rd Project Workshop on Seismic Risk and Loss Estimation project: Assessment of seismic hazard and risk in Emirate of Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 24-26 March 2013. (external advisor)

·       Seismological Society of America, Salt Lake City, USA, 17-19 April 2013.

·       Colloquium on Data Integration Technologies for Earth System Modelling and Resource Management, Pretoria, South Africa, 23 April 2013. 

·       Fennovoima Start-up Meeting, Workshop 1, Helsinki, Finland, 15-16 November 2013 (external advisor)



·       European Seismological Commissions, 33rd General Assembly, Moscow, Russia, 19-24 August 2012.

·       Actuarial Society 2012 Convention, Cape Town, South Africa, 16-17 October 2012

·       SSHA Level3 Thyspunt - Review of Database and Discussion of Alternative Models, Workshop 2, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 15-21 January 2012.

·       ICSU ROA Hazard and Disasters Projects Workshop, Centurion, South Africa, 22-23 March 2012.

·       Fluid-Induced Seismicity Workshop, Boksburg, South Africa, 30 March 2012

·       Professor A. Kijko was invited to present a lecture on “Multi-Dimension of Geophysical Fields - Seismology”  at the 2nd Combined Science and Technology Train and Space Geodesy Observatory Workshop which was held in Matjiesfontein during the week of 15 April 2012 to 21 April 2012. 

·       Aon Benfield Research Conference, London, England, 4-5 July 2012



·       Department of Science and Technology & National Institute for Higher Education (NIHE) of the Northern Cape invited Prof Kijko to present a lecture on “Tsunami, how relevant are they to us in South Africa?” during the National Science Week which was held in Kimberly during 1-4 August 2011.

·       4th Annual Seismology Workshop on Fluid-Induced Seismicity, Pretoria, South Africa, 16 August 2011. 

·       7th Annual AfricaArray Workshop,  Johannesburg, South Africa, 17-22 November 2011.
23rd Colloquium of African Geology, Johannesburg, South Africa, 8-14 January 2011.
 Hosted: Extreme Natural Hazard and Societal Implications Workshop (ENHANS), Pretoria, South Africa, 17-20 January 2011
First Scientific Seminar of the Japan-SA Collaborative Research Project, Johannesburg, Pretoria, 20 April 2011 
7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (STATSEI7), Greece-Thera (Santorini), 25-27 May 2011 
IUGG Joint Symposia, Melbourne Australia, 28 June to 7 July 2011.
Aon Benfield Research 2011 Conference, London, England, 19 and 20 July 2011.         



·       32nd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission (ESC), Montpellier France, 6 to 10 September 2010
Aon Benfield Research, London, England, 14-15 June 2010



·       2009
South African National Committee on Large Dams (Sancold) Bi-annual, Drakensberg, South Africa, 4th and 6th  November 2009.

·       International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI) General Assembly,Cape Town, South Africa, 10-16 January 2009.

·       Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Madrid, Spain, 5 June 2009 (invited keynote lecture) Global Earthquake Model (GEM) International Workshop, Germany, 8-10 June 2009. 
AfricaArray 5th annual workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa, 6-7 July 2009
 57th Session of the International Statistics Institute (ISI), Durban, South Africa 16-22 August 2009

·       2007 Keynote lecture - Kuwait - March 2007

·       2007 Keynote lecture - India - January 2007

·       2007 “Planet Earth” 94th Indian Science Congress, Annamalai

·       Nagar, Annamalai University, Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, Theme Session “Natural Hazards”. India.

·       2006 Keynote lecture - Pakistan - November 20062006 European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and

·       Seismology 2006 Switzerland – 4-14 September 2006

·       2006 Keynote lecture - Iran -  August 2006

·       2006 Keynote lecture - London - August 2006

·       2006 Disaster Management Seminar “Towards a resilient South Africa: Strategic Leadership Issues in Disaster Management” - Cape Town –27-28 July 2006

·       2006 Keynote lecture - Bangkok -  June 2006

·       2006 Current Issues in urban seismic hazard and risk, Workshop, Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.

·       2006 International Training Course on Seismology, Strong Ground Motion and Seismic Waveform Modelling, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran.

·       2006 Gulf Seismic Forum 2006 at Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman.

·       2005 NATO Advanced Research Workshop ‘Earthquake Monitoring and Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Balkan Countries’, The Rila Mountains, Borovetz, Bulgaria

·       2005 Gulf Seismic Forum 2005 at United Arab EmiratesUniversity, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates

·       2004 St. Louis University, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, USA

·       2004 Harvard University, Division of Engineering & Applied Sciences, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, USA

·       2003 Centro de Investigation Cientfica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, CICESE, Mexico.

·       2002 XII European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, London.

·       2000 Conference on Neotectonics, Paleoseismology and Seismic Hazard Analysis, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa, November, 2000.

·       2000 12th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand.

·       1998 XI European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paris.

·       1996 Earthquake Hazard Mitigation for Non-Engineering Structures (Commonwealth Science Council, UK), Hyderabad, India.

·       1996 East and Southern Africa Region Seismic Hazard Workshop, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

·       1994 XXIV General Assembly European Seismological Commission, Athens, Greece.

·       1993 Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction, (International Atomic Energy Agency & UNESCO), Trieste, Italy

·       1992 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program, (International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction), Rome, Italy.

·       General Assembly of International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth in Tokyo, Vancouver, Hamburg, Istanbul, Thessaloniki and Birmingham.



 An Introduction to Mining Seismology. S.J. Gibowicz, and A. Kijko, Academic Press, San Diego, 1994.

Statistical Methods in Mining Seismology, A. Kijko, South African Geophysical Association, Johannesburg, 1996.


Some publications in national and international journals (1998-2013)

  • Kijko, A., Smit, A., (2012). Extension of the b-value Estimator for Incomplete Catalogs. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 102, Number 3, 1283–1287. DOI: 10.1785/0120110226.
  • Kijko, A., (2012). On Bayesian procedure for maximum earthquake magnitude estimation. Research in Geophysics, 2, Number 1. /journals/index.php/rg [Research in Geophysics [eISSN 2038-9663] is a new Open Access, online-only, peer-reviewed journal published by PAGEPress, Pavia, Italy. All credits and honours to PKP for their OJS.]
  • Tsapanos, T.M., Koravos, G.Ch., Zygouri, V., Tsapanos, M.T., Kortsari, A.N., Kijko, A., Kalogirou, E.E., (2011). Deterministic Seismic Hazard analysis for the city of Corinth-Central, Greece. Journal of Balkan Geophysical Society, 14, Number 1, 1-14.
  • Kijko, A. (2011) Seismic Hazard in Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics Vol 1 (1st Edition). Edited by H.K. Gupta. Springer. pp1107-1120.
  • Singh, M., Kijko, A., Van den Berg, L., (2011). Seismic Ranking for Large Dams in South Africa. ActaGeophysica, 59, Number 1, 72-90.
  • Heiderzadeh, M., Kijko, A., (2011). A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Nat Hazard. 56. 577-593.
  • Singh, M., Kijko, A., Durrheim, R., (2011). First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa. Nat Hazad. 59, Number 1, 383-400. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9762-3.
  • Kijko, A., Singh, M., (2011). Statistical Tools for Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude Estimation. Acta Geophysica. 59, Number 4, 674-700.
  • Singh, M., Kijko, A., Van den Berg, L., (2009). Seismic risk ranking for large dams in South Africa. SANCOLD conference 2009: Sustainable development of dams in Southern Africa. 4-6 November 2009 (peer reviewed).
  • Saunders, I., M. Brandt, J. Steyn, D. Roblin and A. Kijko (2008). The South African National Seismograph Network. Seismol. Research Letters, 79, Number 2, 203-210.
  • Mohammad Heidarzadeh , Moharram D. Pirooz, Costas E. Synolakis and Andrzej Kijko. (2008), A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the Makran Subduction Zone at the Northwestern Indian Ocean. Journal of Coastal Engineering.
  • Singh, M., A. Kijko and R. Durrheim. (2009). Seismotectonic Models for South Africa. Synthesis of Geoscientific Information, Problems and Way Forward. Seismol. Research Letters, 89, Number 1, 71-80.
  • Linzer, L.M., Bejaichund, M., Cichowicz, A., Durrheim, R.J., Goldbach, O.D., Kataka, M.O., Kijko, A., Milev, A., Saunders, I., Spottiswoode, S.M. and Webb, S.J. (2007). A summary of recent research in seismology in South Africa. South African Journal of Science, Vol. 103 No 9/10, p 419-426.
  • Durrheim R.J., Anderson R.L., Cichowicz A., Ebrahim-Trollope R., Hubert G., Kijko A., McGarr A., Ortlepp W .D. and Van der Merwe N. 2006. The risks to Miners, Mines and the Public posed by Large Seismic Events in the Gold Mining Districts of South Africa. CSIR,South Africa., California Seismic Safety Commission, U.S.A., Council for Geoscience, South Africa., GeoHydroSeis c.c., South Africa., Golder Associates (Pty) Ltd., South Africa., US Geological Survey, U.S.A., SRK Consulting, South Africa., University of Pretoria, South Africa.
  • Graham, G. and A. Kijko. Some Examples of Rotation Effects: the Tulbagh Earthquake, South Africa.In: Earthquake Source Asymmetry, Structural Media and Rotation Effects, eds. R. Teisseyre, M. Takeo and E. Majewski, Springer. 25-28., 2006.
  • Theodoros M. Tsapasnos, Paivi Mantyneimi and Kijko A. 2004. A probabilistic seismic harzard assessment for Greece and the surrounding region including site-specific considerations. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory, Thessaloniki, Greece. Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, Finland. Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa. Annals of Geophysics, vol. 47 N. 6, December 2004.
  • Merkle, R.K.W., Dixon, R.D. and Kijko, A. 2003. Trace element characterization of gold and platinum-group element deposits and products in South Africa. Proceedings International Forum and Exposition on Precious Minerals, California, Colombia, November 18-21, 2003, 88-92, also in Pecchio,M., Andrale, F.R.D., DAgostino, L.Z., Kahn, H., Sant-Agostino,.M., Tassinari, M.M.M.L. (Editors) Applied Mineralogy: Developments in Science and Technology, 901-904., 2004
  • Kijko, A. 2004, Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, mmax, Pure Appl. Geophys, 161, 1655-1681.
  • Mäntyniemi, P., T.M. Tsapanos and A. Kijko, 2004. An estimate of probabilistic seismic hazard for five cities in Greece by using the parametric-historic procedure, Engineering Geology, 72, 217-231. Also: Published online Ref: ENGEO2227, /
  • Wright, C., A. Kijko, L.M. Linzer and M. Smith, 2003. Recent research in earth, earthquake and mine seismology, a seismic hazard evaluation in South Africa, SA Journal of Sciences, July/August, 99, 389-394.
  • Brandt, M.B.C., A. Kijko and G. Graham, 2003. Seismic Hazard Analysis and Micro-Seismic Monitoring at Southern African Dams, Proceedings of the ICOLD 21st Congress, Montreal 2003, Paper Q. 83-R 42, 731-752.
  • Davies, N., and A. Kijko, 2003. Seismic risk assessment: with an application to the South African Insurance Industry SA Actuarial Journal, vol. 3, 1-28.
  • Mantyniemi, P., V.I. Marza, A. Kijko and P. Retief, 2003, A New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Vrancea (Romania) Seismogenic Zone. Natural Hazards, 29, 371-385.
  • Kijko, A., S.J.P. Retief, G. Graham, 2003. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for the Tulbagh Area, Part II. Assessment of Seismic Risk. Natural Hazards, 30, 25-41.
  • Kijko, A., S.J.P. Retief, G. Graham, and M.S. Bejaichund, 2002. Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on the parametric-historic procedure. Case study: Tulbagh, South Africa, Africa Geoscience Review, Proceedings of the Workshop: “Geological and environmental Hazards and Natural Catastrophes”, Nairobi, Kenya, May, 2002,Geohazards in Africa, vol. 9, No. 4, 289-312.
  • Lasocki, A. Kijko, and G. Graham, 2002. Model-free seismic hazard analysis. In: Seismogenic Process Monitoring, Ed.: H. Ogasawara, T. Yanagidani, and M. Ando, Proceedings of a Joint Japan-Poland Symposium on Mining and Experimental Seismology, Kyoto, Japan, November, 1999. pp. 327-339.
  • Kijko, A. 2002, Statistical estimation of maximum regional earthquake magnitude mmax. Proceedings of 12th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, London, September 9-13, 2002. Paper Reference FW: 022 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
  • Kijko, A., S.J.P. Retief, G. Graham, 2002. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for the Tulbagh Area, Part I. Assessment of Seismic Hazard. Natural Hazards, 26, 175-201.
  • Mantyniemi, P., A. Kijko, and P. Retief 2001. Parametric-historic procedure for seismic hazard assessment and its application to northern Europe, Bull. Geof. Teor. Appl., 42, 41-55.
  • Kijko, A., S. Lasocki, G. Graham, 2001. Non-parametric seismic hazard analysis in mines. Pure and Applied Geophysics, vol. 158, 1655-1675.
  • Retief, S.J.P., G., Graham, A. Kijko, 2000. Seismic Design Input in the Face of a large fault, Neotectonics, Paleoseismology and Seismic Hazard Analysis, Proceedings of the Workshop on: Neotectonics, Paleoseismology, and Seismic Hazard Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa, November 23-25, 2000.
  • Kijko, A., A. Oncel, 2000. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the Japanese Islands, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 20 (5-8), pp. 485-491.
  • Kijko, A., G. Graham, S.J.P. Retief, 2000. Recurrence intervals for major earthquakes from modern, historic, and prehistoric seismic information, Proceedings of the Workshop on: Neotectonics, Paleoseismology, and Seismic Hazard Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa, November 23-25, 2000.
  • Kijko, A., M-J. Jiménez, M. García-Fernández, 2000. A comparison of the deductive and parametric-historic methods for seismic hazard assessment in the Iberian Peninsula, XXVII General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Lisbon, Portugal, 10-15 September 2000. Book of Abstracts and Papers, SSF-1-07-P, p. 96.
  • Mantyniemi, P., A. Kijko, P. Retief, 2000. Parametric-historic procedure for seismic hazard assessment and its application for northern Europe, XXVII General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Lisbon, Portugal, 10-15 September 2000. Book of Abstracts and Papers, SSF-1-07-P, p.94.
  • Mantyniemi, P., V.I. Marza, A. Kijko, P. Retief, 2000. Parametric-historic procedure for seismic hazard assessment and its application to Vrancea (Romania) Seismogenic Zone. In: Abstracts for Third meeting of Asian Seismological Commission & Symposium on Seismology, Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Earth's Interior Related Topics, October 10-12, 2000, Tehran, Iran, pp. 40-41.
  • P. Mantyniemi, V. Marza, A. Kijko, P. Retief, 2000. New probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Vrancea (Romania) seismogenic zone, In: Abstracts for the 8th International Symposium on Natural and Technological Hazards HAZARDS 2000, Tokushima, Shikoku, Japan, May 21-25, 2000, pp. 25-26.
  • Kijko A., 2000. Statistical estimation of maximum regional earthquake magnitude mmax. Proceedings of the Workshop “Seismicity Modeling in Seismic Hazard Mapping”, European Seismological Commission, and Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, Geophysical Survey. Police, Slovenia, May 22-24, 2000, Ljubliana, 2000, p 16-25.
  • A, Rebez , L. Peruzza and D. Slejko, 1999. Spectral probabilistic seimic hazard assessment for Italy. Osservatorio Geoifsico Sperimentale, Trieste, Italy. C.N.R Gruppo Nazionale per la Difesa dei Terremoti at O.G.., Trieste ,Italy. Vol. 40, N.1, pp,31-51, March 1999.
  • Kijko A., G. Graham, 1999. &

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